The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season has already gotten off to an early start with Tropical Storm Arthur off the Carolina coast in early May.
On Thursday, NOAA released their 2020 Atlantic Hurricane outlook, which is calling for an above normal season. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
NOAA states that several factors are going into their forecast 2 of which are above normal sea surface temperatures and El Nino Southern Oscillations conditions are expected to remain neutral or trend towards La Nina.