CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) – Rain and gusty wind may impact the Memorial Day weekend thanks to a system that may develop off the South Carolina coast in the coming days.

Forecasters are watching a developing storm that is expected to move out of the Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida peninsula and into the Atlantic.

The system could potentially bring rain and wind to South Carolina in time for the weekend.

“This is going to be determined by 50 miles, most likely,” said Storm Team 2 Meteorologist Josh Marthers. “50 miles further east and this misses us and heads up into North Carolina. 50 miles further west, that means it comes right into South Carolina and we get a very, very wet start to Memorial Day weekend and it could be slow to clear.”

Based on the latest guidance, rain chances would start to increase by Friday afternoon, coming in off the Atlantic. Whether that rain will be light or heavy depends on the storm’s track.

Two possible scenarios

Scenario 1

This scenario would be the most unpleasant for the Lowcountry as the storm would track into South Carolina bringing heavy rain late Friday through Saturday. We could see several inches of rain, the possibility of flooding, and gusty winds up to 45 mph along the coast.

“Rain would tapper during the day Sunday but it would still linger a bit,” said Marthers.

Scenario 2

This scenario would be more favorable for us. It would take the storm up into North Carolina. This would still give us some rain Friday into Saturday, but the more widespread and heavier rain would be displaced further to the north.

“It will still be breezy, but not as bad, with wind gusts in the 20s to right around 30,” Marthers explained.

“Right now, both of these are plausible scenarios. We need about another 24 hours before we can really narrow this down and get the details worked out for your Memorial Day weekend forecast,” he added.

Bottom line:

Rain chances climb Friday and Saturday and will be determined by the development of a coastal storm in the Atlantic. A closer approach would mean more rain and cooler temperatures, while a farther east track would allow for some drier air to work in and possibly clear the sky Saturday.

Depending on the location of the coastal storm, warmer days are possible Sunday and Monday with lower rain chances and more sunshine.