NC State University developing new model to predict hurricane activity 18 months earlier

Tracking the Tropics

Researchers may soon know how active a hurricane season may be 18 months ahead of time.

North Carolina State University is working on a new model that incorporates historical data like sea surface temperatures, el Nino, la Nina and past hurricanes to help predict what’s called “accumulated cyclone energy,” or “ACE.”

Scientists hope it will help narrow down predictions by region and even state.

“When we can get more specific, then it can be more useful for specific states. We really would like to be able to pinpoint more precise locations where we need to pay more attention to,” said Professor Lian Xie with N.C. State University.

Scientists say having more warnings will help government agencies, the tourism industry, insurance companies and citizens prepare for storms.

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