NOAA is predicting an above average hurricane season with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 of those becoming major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher. This outlook is a forecast for formation, not landfall, as several of these storms will likely stay out to sea- and remember it only takes one storm to impact us for it to be a bad season.
NOAA holds a 70% confidence in this range with a 60% likelihood of an above-normal season, 30% near-normal season, and only a 10% chance for a below season. This forecast matches the forecasts from other meteorologists at Colorado State University and North Carolina State University. This forecast is due to the presence of an active monsoon season, weaker trade winds, warmer than average sea surface temperatures, and a neutral ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) phase.
If this forecast for an above average season checks out, it will mark 5 consecutive seasons labeled as active. Count on Storm Team 2 to keep you informed during this hurricane season.