Tracking the Tropics: Atlantic basin remains active with 2 named storms, other areas being monitored

Tracking the Tropics

TAMPA, Fla (WFLA) — The first week in September means the peak of hurricane season is nearing. Statistically speaking, 61% of all named storms form in August and September.

So far in 2020, the Atlantic Basin has seen 15 named storms. Four of them have reached hurricane strength and one of them was a major hurricane. Major Category 4 Hurricane Laura made landfall in southwest Louisiana last week with maximum winds at 150 mph.

Nana and Omar formed within the last 24 hours and are the earliest 14th and 15th named storms on record, respectively.

Tropical Storm Nana

Nana formed first from Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 midday Tuesday. The system is 240 miles east of Belize City in the western Caribbean moving west at 17 mph.

Nana is not incredibly organized but is forecast to becoming a hurricane Wednesday night before approaching land.

Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected for the coast of Belize. Nana will weaken after landfall, which is expected Thursday morning.

Tropical Storm Omar

Omar formed shortly after Nana on Tuesday afternoon from Tropical Depression 15. Omar is forecast to be short-lived and strong upper level winds are already impacting the storm.

The showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical storm are being displaced far to the south of the storm, leaving the center exposed. Omar is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression Thursday.

Other areas to watch

Elsewhere in the tropics, two tropical waves are being monitored for organization.

The first wave in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has a 20% and 30% chance of developing over the next two and five days, respectively. The convection associated with the low pressure currently remains disorganized but slow development of the system is possible as it meanders through the Atlantic.

The second wave, farther east of the first, has a better chance of developing. The National Hurricane Center gives this wave a 10% formation chance over the next two days and a 60% chance of developing over the next five days.

The tropical wave just emerged off the coast of Africa and will have a better chance of developing as it moves west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical depression could form by this weekend as it moves into the central tropical Atlantic.

During the month of September, the development region for tropical cyclones expands. According to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, Florida is the most susceptible to a hurricane landfall in September with the most hurricane landfalls of 39 since 1851.

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